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Polysilicon prices have continued to climb in the short term, rising from a low of around $15/kg to approximately $19 today—an increase of 26%. This upward trend is being closely watched by industry analysts and investors alike.
According to recent analysis, the current surge in polysilicon prices is largely attributed to China’s ongoing anti-dumping investigation into imported polysilicon, which is expected to result in higher import tariffs. This regulatory pressure has tightened supply and pushed prices higher.
Analysts from the China Securities Research Center note that the government’s investigation into polysilicon imports and ongoing negotiations with the EU are still in progress. While the final outcome remains uncertain, the market is already reacting to the potential for increased costs. As a result, polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable or continue rising in the near term.
From a cost perspective, the current spot price of polysilicon is still below what domestic producers consider sustainable. To maintain reasonable profit margins, further price increases are likely. This suggests that the market is still in an upward phase, driven by both supply-side constraints and demand-side support.
The analyst also highlighted that the recent price rise could benefit domestic polysilicon producers with strong cost advantages. Some companies may see improved profitability or even turn from losses to gains. Investors are advised to pay attention to A-share listed companies such as TBEA, CSG A, and Dunan Environment, which have competitive production costs and are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend.
However, it's important to note that the rising cost of polysilicon poses challenges for downstream industries, such as solar panel manufacturers. These companies face higher production costs, and with weak demand in the market, they may struggle to pass on these costs to consumers. This could negatively impact their profits.
On the flip side, some companies have previously purchased polysilicon at lower prices, and as the market price rises, their existing inventory has significantly increased in value. This can create unexpected profit opportunities for those who locked in cheaper supplies earlier.
One company that stands out in this context is Longji Shares, which has acquired a substantial amount of polysilicon at around $15/kg. With the current price increase, the value added from its inventory is becoming more apparent. If polysilicon prices continue to rise, the impact on Longji's financial performance is worth watching closely.
Polysilicon prices are rising, downstream stocks are abundant, or benefiting