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Polysilicon prices have seen a steady upward trend in the short term, climbing from around $15/kg to approximately $19 today—an increase of 26%. This price movement has caught the attention of market analysts and industry participants alike.
According to recent analysis, the current rise in polysilicon prices is largely driven by China's ongoing anti-dumping investigation into imported polysilicon. The investigation is expected to result in higher import tariffs, which could further tighten supply and push prices higher.
Analysts from the China Securities Research Center note that the Chinese government’s probe into polysilicon imports and subsequent negotiations with the EU are still in progress. While the final outcome remains uncertain, the process is likely to take several months. In the interim, polysilicon prices are expected to remain stable or continue rising. From a cost perspective, the current spot market price is still below the production costs of many domestic polysilicon manufacturers. To maintain reasonable profit margins, further price increases are anticipated.
The analyst also highlighted that the current price surge and potential future increases could benefit domestic polysilicon producers with strong cost advantages. Some companies may see improved profitability or even turn losses into gains. Investors are advised to keep an eye on A-share listed companies such as TBEA, CSG A, and Dunan Environment, which are positioned well in terms of production efficiency and cost control.
However, it's important to note that the rising cost of polysilicon poses challenges for downstream industries that rely on it as a raw material. With weak demand in the downstream sector, companies may struggle to fully pass on the increased costs, potentially affecting their profit margins. On the flip side, some firms have already secured large inventories of polysilicon at lower prices—around $15/kg—which now carry significant value. As prices climb, these companies stand to gain from their existing stockpiles.
One company worth watching is Longji, a producer of monocrystalline silicon wafers. The firm has acquired a substantial amount of polysilicon at around $15/kg, and its current value is clearly visible. If polysilicon prices continue to rise, the impact on Longji's financial performance will be worth closely monitoring.
Polysilicon prices are rising, downstream stocks are abundant, or benefiting