**1. Introduction**
The ancients said, “There are accidents in the sky.†Building fire engineering is an open system that is inevitably influenced by various uncertainties, especially in large-scale projects. These projects often have long construction periods, complex technical conditions, and limitations in planning and design. As a result, during construction and operation, they may face numerous adverse factors, which could lead to failure in achieving the goals of progress, quality, safety, and cost control, causing significant losses to the country and its people. Therefore, identifying, analyzing, and evaluating risks in fire protection construction, as well as how to manage and monitor them, are critical issues that must be addressed. This is the core content of risk management in building fire engineering.
Conducting research on risk management and fire engineering methods for building fire protection is essential to implement the principle of "prevention-oriented, with prevention and disinfection combined" in China’s fire protection policy. Understanding fire risk management allows us to control investment, schedule, and quality of building fire engineering through scientific methods. Fire risk management is a part of the fire safety process and runs throughout the entire building fire engineering lifecycle. Applying fire risk management theory helps balance the specific requirements of different phases of fire construction and operation in projects. Thus, studying fire risk management is of great significance for fire safety.
**2. Construction Fire Engineering Risk**
**2.1 Classification of Risks and Risk Events**
The risk of building fire engineering refers to the possibility that project objectives cannot be achieved under the specified conditions. It consists of two elements: (a) the potential for an event to occur, defined as the project risk rate (RiskProbability), and (b) the consequences of negative events.
**2.2 Characteristics of Building Fire Engineering Risk**
(1) Objectivity of building fire engineering risk: The risk always exists regardless of human will, whether it's natural disasters, wars, or social conflicts. However, as human understanding of risk improves, scientific management of these risks becomes possible.
(2) Uncertainty in fire engineering risk: Whether a risk occurs, when it happens, and what consequences it brings are uncertain. However, historical data and experience can help make predictions.
(3) Variability of fire engineering risk: When risk factors change, both the probability and consequences of the risk also change.
(4) Stages of fire engineering risk: It includes potential stages, occurrence stages, and consequence stages.
**3. Risk Identification in Building Fire Engineering**
Fire engineering risk identification is the first and most important step in risk management. It involves determining what risks exist in the implementation of engineering projects, their potential impacts, and documenting these risks and their characteristics.
**3.1 Risk Identification Process and Methods**
Common methods for identifying fire engineering risks include empirical data analysis, risk investigation, expert consultation, and experimental demonstration. In empirical data analysis, collecting similar building data such as file records, project summaries, quality reports, acceptance data, and accident handling documents is crucial. In risk investigations, an initial risk list is established through risk decomposition. Afterward, further risk identification is conducted based on the project's specific features. Expert consultations involve meetings where experts provide opinions on fire protection programs, and questionnaires can also be used to gather independent views. Risk managers then summarize, classify, and analyze these expert opinions.
**3.2 Case Study: A Large Home Shopping Mall in Wenzhou**
This shopping mall has 7 floors above ground, is 39.9 meters tall, covers about 10,700 square meters, and has 3,300 square meters of underground space. The main risks identified include issues with the construction unit, such as cutting corners, using substandard materials, and violating regulations. Design organizations may also face challenges, such as failing to meet actual project needs, leading to hidden design flaws. Additionally, problems in the construction phase include poor installation of fire protection systems and lack of supervision. These issues manifest in the form of irrational fire protection designs and improper installations, such as side sprays not fully protecting walkways or insufficient fire rescue windows.
**4. Risk Assessment of Building Fire Engineering**
Building fire engineering risk assessment involves analyzing the probability of risk events, the resulting losses, and their impacts, as well as the joint effects of multiple risk events. This provides a basis for developing risk management plans, identifying response measures, and monitoring risks. Risk assessment is divided into risk evaluation and risk assessment.
**4.1 Risk Assessment of Building Fire Engineering**
This process analyzes the likelihood and consequences of risk events, providing a foundation for assessing overall or specific types of risks.
**4.1.1 Risk Assessment Methods**
In building fire engineering, risk factors and events are typically described through models, and risk is estimated by calculating the model. Many countries have developed models such as the U.S. Building Fire Safety Evaluation Method (BFSEM), Australia’s Risk Assessment Model (RAM), and Canada’s FIRECAM method.
**4.1.2 Estimated Probability of Risk Events**
Analyzing the probability distribution of risk events is the basis for risk assessment. Objective probability is determined by historical data, while subjective or theoretical probabilities are used when data is limited.
**4.1.3 Risk Loss Estimation**
Estimating the loss from fire engineering risks includes investment, schedule, quality, and safety risks. Ultimately, these risks translate into economic losses.
**4.1.3.1 Maximum One-Time Loss Estimate**
A key indicator is the maximum one-time loss, as sudden large losses can jeopardize the project’s liquidity, while smaller, prolonged losses may be manageable.
**4.1.3.2 Overall Project Loss Estimate**
Overall loss considers the long-term impact of a single loss, which is often overlooked in estimates, leading to inaccuracies.
**4.2 Risk Evaluation of Building Fire Engineering**
Based on risk assessment, this step further analyzes the joint effects of multiple risks, the comprehensive consequences, and whether the project subject can accept these risks. It helps determine the order of risks, identify internal links, and understand the relationship between risks, enabling better decision-making.
**4.2.1 Risk Assessment Criteria**
Project owners set acceptable risk rates for different risks. For example, companies like Yangzi Petrochemical-BASF use standards to evaluate risks related to tank leakage. Different building projects require tailored risk assessment criteria based on their characteristics.
**5. Risk Response and Management in Building Fire Engineering**
After identifying, estimating, and evaluating risks, risk managers should have a clear understanding of the risks and potential losses. Based on this, they need to develop practical risk response plans, choose appropriate strategies such as avoidance, transfer, mitigation, acceptance, or utilization, and aim to turn risks into opportunities or minimize negative impacts.
**5.1 Risk Response Plan and Strategy**
Developing a risk response plan involves formulating a strategy and countermeasures to increase the chances of achieving project goals and reduce threats. Common strategies include risk aversion, transfer, mitigation, retention, and utilization, often in combination.
**5.2 Ways to Avoid Risks**
There are two approaches: avoiding the risk itself or reducing the loss after a risk event occurs. For example, choosing safer fire protection systems or adding more fire extinguishing equipment can help mitigate damage.
**5.2.1 Risk Avoidance Planning System**
A risk avoidance system includes prevention, disaster, and emergency plans. Prevention aims to avoid risks through management, disaster plans handle emergencies, and emergency plans address post-loss recovery.
**5.2.2 Limitations of Risk Avoidance**
Risk avoidance can sometimes limit opportunities or hinder innovation, and it depends heavily on available information.
**5.3 Risk Transfer**
Risk transfer involves shifting the responsibility and consequences of a risk to another party. For example, owners, designers, contractors, and property managers each bear different risks.
**5.3.1 Non-Insurance Transfer**
Non-insurance transfer involves contractual arrangements, such as adjusting fire management measures to reduce initial investments.
**5.3.2 Insurance Transfer**
Insurance is an effective way to transfer risk, allowing project stakeholders to pay a small fee for compensation in case of losses.
**5.4 Risk Retention**
Risk retention, or acceptance, involves taking on residual risks when other strategies are not feasible.
**5.5 Risk Utilization**
Risk utilization is a higher-level strategy that turns potential risks into opportunities through careful management and control.
**5.6 Risk Management Decision-Making**
Risk management decisions involve selecting the best plan from several options based on analysis, evaluation, and judgment.
**6. Comprehensive Evaluation**
Each step in building fire engineering risk management is crucial, and priorities depend on the specific situation. For mature projects, risk response methods are more important, while for less mature ones, risk assessment is vital.
**6.1 Selection of Risk Assessment Methods**
Risk estimation methods depend on the project’s characteristics. Currently, many models are adopted from foreign sources, but there is still a need for locally developed standards.
**6.2 Selection of Risk Response Strategies**
Risk response strategies are closely linked to risk assessment results. Choosing the right strategy ensures effective risk management.
**7. Conclusion**
Building fire engineering risk management is a critical component of fire protection, playing a central role in the entire construction process. Through research on risk management, we can effectively prevent or reduce losses, promote performance-based fire design, and support comprehensive fire analysis theories. While domestic research in this area is still in its early stages, with increasing improvements in fire protection and international technology integration, the future of building fire engineering risk management looks promising.
**Abstract:** This article addresses the challenges faced in building fire engineering and combines current developments in risk management in China. By analyzing risk identification, assessment, and response, along with case studies, it describes the concept of building fire engineering risk management. It proposes measures for assessing and responding to risks, aiming to promote the development of risk management in this field in China.
**Keywords:** risk, building fire engineering, risk assessment, risk management
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