In the first quarter, the auto market fell by 10.5%, showing a “fierce” differentiation performance.

In March, the sales volume of China's narrow passenger cars was 1,740,300 units, down 12.1% year-on-year and 48.2% quarter-on-quarter. According to the first quarter data, China's narrow passenger cars sold a total of 5,075,749 vehicles, down 10.5% year-on-year. Cui Dongshu said that the core reason for the decline in the auto market in the first quarter was that the property market and financial markets occupied the excessive consumption power of ordinary people.

At the same time, the auto market is also showing a "fierce" differentiation performance. Driven by consumption upgrades and high-end brand prices, high-end car sales have continued to climb and gradually eroded the market share of mainstream joint venture brands. In addition, the indifference of the entry-level market has made the main brand with its main price/performance ratio suffer the most.

Yesterday (April 9), the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association released data showing that in March, China’s narrow passenger vehicle sales were 1,740,300 units, although it fell 12.1% year-on-year, but compared with the fourth quarter of last year, it is showing a gradual The rebound trend; and the substantial increase of 48.2% in the previous month is the embodiment of the “Spring Festival factor”.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said, "The core reason for the decline in the auto market in the first quarter is that the property market and financial markets have taken up the excessive spending power of ordinary people, resulting in 'no cars' consumers. There is no car purchase plan, specifically the consumption of the entry-level market of self-owned brands is sluggish."

Three major models show sluggish new energy

Specific to the performance of the model, in March, the performance of the three major models is still relatively low. Among them, cars and SUVs were affected by the overall downturn of the auto market, with the declines exceeding 10%, while the MPVs lacking hot spots were more than 20%. In the first quarter, the performance of the sedan was the strongest, and the SUV and MPV fell by more than 10%.

In March, the car sold a total of 857,285 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 48.9%, down 12.0% year-on-year; in January-March, the car sold a total of 2,503,992 vehicles, although the year-on-year decline of 7.4%, but it is the strongest of the three major models. The "strong" of cars is mainly due to the popularity of the new energy market.

In the first quarter, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 137,000 vehicles, achieving a “open door”. Stimulated by the buffer period of new energy subsidies in 2019, sales of new energy vehicles saw a “blowout” in March, reaching 111,000 units, an increase of 100.9% year-on-year.

Cui Dongshu believes that “A00-level entry electric vehicles and joint-venture brand plug-in hybrids will be two growth points for new energy vehicles. In particular, the joint venture plug-in hybrid models such as Corolla plug-in and Passat plug-in have already obtained the Vulgar scores." On the whole, the Association predicts that in 2019, China's new energy vehicle sales will be expected to exceed 1.7 million.

In addition, the SUV performance has improved slightly. In March, SUV sold a total of 752,532 units, an increase of 47.8% from the previous month and a decrease of 10.7% from the same period of last year. The decline was the smallest among the three models. Focusing on the overall performance in the first quarter, SUV sold a total of 2,202,237 units, down 12.2% year-on-year.

In March, MPV sold a total of 1,304,48 units, an increase of 45.9% from the previous month and a significant drop of 20.2% year-on-year. In the first quarter, MPV sold a total of 371,320 units, down 19.3% year-on-year.

The auto market showed a "fierce" differentiation and maintained a stable trend in April.

In March, the growth rate of high-end cars reached 7.5%, the mainstream joint venture brands fell by 12.3%, and the independent brands fell by 15.7%. The domestic auto market presents a “fierce” differentiation performance.

“The differentiation of the automobile market stems from the development environment of the society. Driven by consumption upgrades and the price of high-end car brands, the high-end car market is welcoming a strong trend of continuous climbing. The increase in sales of high-end cars has eroded mainstream joint venture brands. "The market share." Cui Dongshu analyzed, "In addition, due to the domestic residents' emphasis on real estate, as well as the diversion of financial markets, consumers who did not have private cars still have no plans to buy cars, which also makes the entry-level market particularly cold, and the impact is the biggest Undoubtedly, it is the independent brand with its main price/performance ratio. At the same time, the recent hot-selling car-to-home policy has not played an immediate role in promoting vehicle sales."

In terms of the car division, the recent performance of Japanese cars can be described as “outstanding”. Cui Dongshu believes that "the recent strength of Japanese cars also contains 'moisture'. First of all, due to the influence of 'machine throttle', Japanese cars fell to freezing point last year, and the sales base is small, which is conducive to positive growth in sales this year. Second, due to Japanese The car 'base camp' - Guangdong, in the implementation of the 'National Six' in advance as a 'leader', so the Japanese car companies are mostly early, larger scale switch to the 'national six' model sales model, so consumers are rushing, And as other brands continue to accelerate the upgrade of models, this advantage of Japanese cars will gradually weaken."

Regarding the future performance of the market, Cui Dongshu said, “The state is promoting the consumption and launching the “May 1st” four-day holiday. The resulting pre-holiday car purchase and car change are worth looking forward to. At the same time, the domestic financial environment is improving, Sino-US trade Factors such as friction mitigation and expected increase in infrastructure investment are also conducive to the development of the automobile market. In addition, the VAT reduction policy officially implemented from April 1 will also greatly promote the development of the automobile industry, especially the major luxury car brands are almost lowered in advance. The price of the model will make the rise of the premium car continue."

However, the auto market will face many unfavorable factors in the future. As China's marriage rate has gradually dropped from 9.9 in 2013 to 7.2, the “spring wedding car buying tide” that has appeared in the past will become weaker and weaker. In addition, there are still uncertainties in the implementation of the “National Six” in many regions, so dealers are relatively cautious and will also affect sales in the end market.

On the whole, the Association expects that the auto market will maintain a stable trend in April, but it is difficult to make a strong breakthrough.

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