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Although the new data in the first half of the year indicated the good development trend of the industry, the reporter noted that unlike the previous years, the development of the photovoltaic industry is facing a new situation and new requirements.
Domestic PV market prices will fall further According to the relevant notice issued by the National Energy Administration, the scale of ordinary photovoltaic power plant construction in 2018 will not be arranged. Obviously, the photovoltaic development model that has been savage and raging has been difficult to sustain.
According to the forecast of relevant institutions, the installed capacity of this year is about 35 million kilowatts. However, apart from the newly installed capacity in the first half of the year, the domestic PV market space in the second half of this year is only about 10 million kilowatts, including 5 million kilowatts of photovoltaic application leading base projects and photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects.
Industry insiders told reporters that due to the fact that there is no subsidy for new ordinary PV projects, in the second half of the year, it is estimated that in addition to the front runners and poverty alleviation projects, there will be a small number of countries that do not need state subsidized PV projects to install the grid, and the domestic PV market demand will be very limited.
On the other hand, in recent years, as China's PV installed capacity continues to grow beyond expectations, many leading PV companies have expanded their production capacity. For example, Longji (601012) plans to expand its wafer capacity to 28 GW by the end of 2018; Tongwei (600438) only has two 100,000 ton polysilicon projects in Baotou and Leshan plus the existing 20,000 tons capacity. After Tongwei's polysilicon production capacity will exceed the top of the GCL-Poly.
Capacity expansion and production increase. According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, from January to June, China's polysilicon production was 143,000 tons, up 24% year-on-year; wafer production was 50 GW, up 38.9% year-on-year; module output was 42 GW, up 23.5% year-on-year. At the same time of large-scale production capacity, market demand is gradually decreasing. In the case of oversupply, the price of polysilicon products will drop from 150 yuan/kg in January to the current 90 yuan/kg. The industry expects that the domestic PV market price will fall further in the second half of the year.
The photovoltaic industry has come to the "inflection point" of development
In 2017, China's production scale in all aspects of the PV industry chain accounted for more than 50%. Among them, component production accounts for 71% of global production, becoming the world's largest PV market.
Under the situation that the domestic PV market is expected to plummet and prices fall sharply, domestic PV companies have turned their attention to overseas markets. In addition to China, the top three in the current world PV market are the United States, India, and Japan. Among them, the Indian market has great potential and is expected to surpass the United States to become the world's second.
The data shows that China exported more than 9 GW of Indian components last year. From January to May this year, China's PV modules exported to India were about 3.6 GW, accounting for 20.1% of total exports.
However, on July 30, the Indian Ministry of Finance and Taxation officially announced that it will impose a 25% guarantee tariff on solar cells (whether packaged or not) in China, Malaysia and other developed countries. At this point, domestic PV products are restricted to India.
At the same time, Europe and the United States continue to "double" against China's PV, and the Japanese PV market has begun to shrink due to subsidies. These new situations also mean that China's PV industry has reached a real development after years of rapid development. "Inflection point."
The cost reduction and efficiency increase is the imbalance of supply and demand in the domestic PV market in the second half of the year, and the overseas market is limited. Where is the way out for China's PV industry in the second half of the year? “Reducing costs is the only way for the PV industry to expand its market, and technological innovation is the fundamental path to reduce costs.†Industry experts said in an interview that the demand for PV market will decline sharply in the second half of the year and will bring a big wash to the industry in a short period of time. Brands, some small and medium-sized enterprises with insufficient capital investment, low technical level and insufficient strength may be eliminated by the market during this major reshuffle. On the contrary, those enterprises with high technical level and strong strength can take the opportunity to get rid of the vicious competition in the market, accelerate the pace of technological innovation, reduce the production cost of products, enhance the competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation, and transform to high quality and high efficiency. .
A research report released by ICBC International recently showed that the single-crystal silicon with higher conversion rate is expected to be less affected in the second half of the year, because about 90% of the front-runner projects are using monocrystalline silicon. In addition, as the conversion rate of single crystal silicon will be easier to achieve parity online, it is expected that the market share of monocrystalline silicon will increase to 40% this year.
How to open the unfavorable situation in the overseas market? The relevant person in charge of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products gave the answer: "On the one hand, photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises should use the international dispute settlement mechanism such as WTO to crack trade barriers and safeguard their legitimate interests. On the other hand, it should also promote diversification of export markets, product differentiation, and enhance product competitiveness. With the “One Belt, One Road†strategy and the AIIB platform, domestic PV companies can increase their exports to Southeast Asia and other countries and vigorously develop Latin America. Australia, East Africa, West Asia and other markets.†It is worth mentioning that in the first half of the year, China’s PV exports to emerging markets such as Australia, Mexico and Brazil are growing rapidly. Among them, from January to May, China’s exports to Australia accounted for 13.3% of total exports.
Industry experts told reporters that in the face of the new situation and new requirements for development, whether it is internal or external, the most fundamental thing for PV companies is to make their products better and more efficient, so that they can not only meet the domestic market. The demand for high-tech products is also accepted by the world. It can be foreseen that the pace of cost reduction and efficiency increase in the domestic PV industry will be further accelerated in the second half of the year.
The photovoltaic industry will accelerate the cost reduction and efficiency increase in the second half of the year
Time flies, and the blink of an eye has entered the second half. In the first half of this year, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved remarkable achievements in the world. According to data released by the National Energy Administration, from January to June, China's new PV installed capacity was 24.3 million kilowatts.