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The rapid development of wind power faces many hidden troubles
Wind power, as a clean energy source, has not lost its momentum despite the ongoing issue of wind curtailment. However, behind this seemingly positive trend, the industry is facing numerous hidden challenges. Insufficient funding, reckless expansion, and the emergence of new technologies have left the wind power sector in a state of confusion, much like a wild horse that has lost its way and found itself trapped in a swamp.
With 29.72 million kilowatts of wind power installed, the country continues to push forward with ambitious projects. The approval plan for the third batch of wind power projects under the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" has brought the total approved capacity of these three batches to over 80 million kilowatts. Yet, industry experts warn that many of these projects may face difficulties during the implementation phase due to issues like wind curtailment and financial constraints.
In March 2012, the National Energy Administration released the second batch of wind power project approvals, planning to add 16.76 million kilowatts. By July of the same year, an additional 8.52 million kilowatts were approved. Earlier in 2011, the first batch had planned to approve 28.83 million kilowatts. This brought the total approved capacity to 82.83 million kilowatts.
The third batch, announced on March 19, included 491 projects with a total capacity of 27.97 million kilowatts. Additionally, four demonstration offshore projects totaling 750,000 kilowatts were planned. These figures highlight the scale of China’s wind power ambitions. However, the rapid expansion has raised concerns about overcapacity and the need for better coordination between policy and market demands.
Experts believe the large-scale expansion aims to address the oversupply in wind turbine manufacturing. Moreover, the approval of these projects comes at a time when wind curtailment remains a significant challenge, yet it also offers economic opportunities for local development.
Despite the challenges, the future of wind power in China looks promising. Analysts like Li X from Infosys argue that wind power will continue to grow as part of the country’s shift toward cleaner energy sources. However, the reality is more complex. In 2012, China’s newly installed wind power capacity dropped by 26.5% compared to the previous year, and wind curtailment resulted in the loss of around 20 billion kWh of electricity—nearly one-fifth of total wind generation.
Industry insiders remain skeptical about whether these projects can be implemented smoothly within the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. With limited funding and tighter credit conditions, the risks of delayed or abandoned projects are high.
As onshore wind power faces limitations, the focus is shifting to offshore wind. Offshore wind farms offer greater potential with less environmental impact. Coastal provinces are now investing heavily in this sector. For example, Fujian Datang International Wind Power Development Co. has started planning the Liuyi Offshore Wind Farm, which could cost 6 billion yuan. Other projects, such as Shanghai’s Donghai Bridge Offshore Wind Farm Phase II, are also moving forward.
However, the offshore wind industry still faces technical, regulatory, and financial challenges. While the government has set ambitious targets—5 million kilowatts by 2015 and 30 million kilowatts by 2020—commercial operations have yet to take off. Experts point out that while the potential is vast, the costs are higher, and the technology is still developing.
Another pressing issue is the decommissioning of old wind turbines. China's first wind turbines, built in the early 1990s, are now reaching the end of their 20-year lifespan. There is no clear policy or infrastructure in place to handle this growing problem. Operators face difficult decisions: either replace the old units or risk safety and efficiency.
The lack of a clear electricity pricing mechanism further complicates the situation. Without stable revenue streams, upgrading or replacing old turbines becomes financially unviable. Industry leaders stress the need for forward-looking policies to address these issues before they become widespread.
While wind power holds great promise for China’s energy transition, the path forward is not without obstacles. From overcapacity to decommissioning, the industry must navigate a complex landscape. Only through careful planning, investment, and innovation can wind power truly realize its potential.
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