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Aluminum prices may slowly pick up
In 2013, it was anticipated that China’s economy would maintain a short-term recovery trend, though it would be unlikely to return to the high growth rates seen before 2008. Aluminum consumption was expected to rise gradually, with infrastructure projects playing a key role in driving demand. However, the expansion of production capacity remained a major challenge. Additionally, the rising cost of imported bauxite—due to its high dependency and increasing prices—added pressure on the electrolytic aluminum industry, alongside electricity costs. While rising costs were pushing prices upward, overcapacity limited how much prices could go up. The projected price range for aluminum was expected to stay between 15,500 and 16,200 yuan per ton.
China's reliance on imported bauxite has been growing rapidly as domestic resources become scarcer. Domestic bauxite mining is costly and of lower quality, making it difficult to expand production. As a result, the country depends heavily on imports. In 2011, the gross margin for bauxite mining dropped to -2.15%, compared to 22.07% just a few months earlier. The price of alumina was around 2,800 yuan per ton during that time, and there was no guarantee of profitability for bauxite mining. After Indonesia raised export tariffs on bauxite, import prices surged, further increasing costs for domestic producers. By October 2011, the average price of Indonesian bauxite had risen by 19.86% year-on-year to $52.36 per ton, adding about 120 yuan per ton to the cost of alumina production.
Despite losses in the electrolytic aluminum sector, the expansion of production capacity continued. Companies moved westward due to rising energy and electricity costs in eastern and central regions. By the end of 2011, Xinjiang alone had proposed over 11.05 million tons of new capacity. Meanwhile, the lack of an effective exit mechanism in eastern provinces meant that outdated production capacity was not being reduced. As a result, capacity continued to grow without significant reductions in the east. According to estimates, electrolytic aluminum production capacity reached 28 million tons in 2012 and was expected to exceed 30 million tons in 2013.
The pace of eliminating outdated production capacity also slowed down due to regional "stabilizing growth" policies. In 2012, the first batch of non-ferrous metal projects aimed at phasing out outdated capacity involved only nine aluminum smelters, totaling 271,600 tons of production capacity—many of which had already been shut down in 2011. The second batch did not include any electrolytic aluminum capacity. On the consumer side, apparent domestic consumption of aluminum from January to October 2012 reached 16.6666 million tons, a 12.98% increase year-on-year. However, after adjusting for 1.4 million tons of stock, actual consumption was only 14.2666 million tons, a 7.2% increase. In December, a seasonal off-peak month, total consumption for the year was 15.7 million tons, with growth likely to fall back to around 7%. A mild recovery in demand was expected in 2013, but consumption growth was unlikely to exceed 8%.