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Aluminum prices may slowly pick up
In 2013, China's economy was expected to maintain a short-term recovery trend, but it was unlikely to return to the high growth rates seen before 2008. Aluminum consumption was anticipated to rise gradually, especially driven by infrastructure development. However, the expansion of production capacity remained a key challenge. At the same time, the industry faced increasing pressure due to the rising cost of imported bauxite, which is heavily relied upon. This, combined with electricity costs, created a significant burden for the electrolytic aluminum sector. From a pricing perspective, rising input costs were pushing prices upward, but overcapacity limited the potential for substantial price increases. The projected price range for aluminum was expected to stay between 15,500 and 16,200 yuan per ton.
China's reliance on imported bauxite has been growing rapidly as domestic reserves struggle to keep up with the demand from the booming aluminum industry. Domestic bauxite mining is not only costly but also suffers from low quality, making it difficult to expand production. As a result, the country has had to rely heavily on imports. In 2011, the gross margin for bauxite mining dropped to -2.15%, while in August of the same year, it had been as high as 22.07%. The alumina price was around 2,800 yuan per ton, and there was no guarantee that bauxite mining would remain profitable. When Indonesia increased its export tariffs on bauxite, import prices rose sharply, further squeezing margins for domestic producers. By October 2011, the average price of Indonesian bauxite had climbed to $52.36 per ton, a 19.86% increase compared to the previous year. Using this imported bauxite, the cost of producing alumina reached approximately 120 yuan per ton.
Despite losses in the electrolytic aluminum sector, the expansion of production capacity continued unabated. Many companies moved westward in search of cheaper energy and electricity, particularly as costs in the eastern and central regions kept rising. By the end of 2011, Xinjiang alone had planned to build over 11.05 million tons of new capacity. Meanwhile, the lack of an effective exit mechanism in the east led to the continued operation of outdated facilities, resulting in an overall increase in production capacity. According to forecasts, electrolytic aluminum production capacity was expected to reach 28 million tons in 2012 and surpass 30 million tons in 2013.
The pace of eliminating outdated production capacity also slowed down due to regional efforts to stabilize economic growth. In 2012, the first batch of non-ferrous metal industries targeted for closure included only nine aluminum smelters, totaling 271,600 tons of production capacity—many of which had already been shut down in 2011. The second batch did not include any additional aluminum smelting projects. On the demand side, apparent domestic consumption of electrolytic aluminum in January–October 2012 reached 16.6666 million tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.98%. However, after subtracting 1.4 million tons of stockpiled aluminum, actual consumption was only 14.2666 million tons, reflecting a 7.2% increase. In December, a seasonal off-peak month, annual consumption for 2012 totaled just 15.7 million tons, with a growth rate potentially dropping back to 7%. It was expected that demand would see a mild recovery in 2013, but consumption growth was unlikely to exceed 8%.