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The Chinese economy is "first" is very dangerous
As of now, the global economic crisis remains unresolved, with the potential for further deterioration. Like most countries worldwide, China is grappling with the challenges of economic recession. Amidst this critical juncture, however, the Western world has offered us the much-needed optimism and confidence—China might surpass the United States in 2016, during President Barack Obama's new term, to become the world’s largest economy. This piece of cheer arrived courtesy of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), announced on November 10th, Beijing time. The same day, the OECD released a report titled "Outlook 2060: Global Vision for Long-Term Growth," suggesting that China’s GDP would overtake the U.S. in just four years, and surpass the entire eurozone within a single year. This implies that by then, China will genuinely lead the global economy and become its primary driver.
Inspired by this news, the central parity of the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar breached the 6.30 threshold. On November 12th, the central parity rates stood at USD 1 = RMB 6.2920, EUR 1 = RMB 8.0044, and JPY 100 = RMB 7.9151. While the OECD's optimism is certainly heartening, it has stirred mixed emotions. Initially, I felt immense pride as a Chinese citizen, yet this joy quickly gave way to anxiety. Will China's economy truly ascend to global leadership? Or is this merely a reflection of shifting global dynamics, with the world poised to embrace China as its new economic powerhouse? If not, what underpins the OECD's projections? Are there hidden agendas at play?
Objectively analyzing the OECD's assessment, it appears somewhat overly optimistic. Last year, China's GDP was approximately 7.3 trillion USD, compared to the U.S.'s 15.09 trillion USD, meaning China's economy accounted for roughly 40% of the U.S. economy. When considering per capita income, the disparity is even starker—China's per capita income is currently only 16.6% of the U.S.'s, though the OECD predicts this will rise to 60% in 50 years. Despite China's projected GDP growth rate of 7.5% this year—higher than the U.S.'s 2%, the largest camel remains larger than the smallest horse, leading the global economy ahead of the U.S. In the context of global currency distribution rights, China overtaking the U.S. in just four years seems like a pipe dream. Even if China achieves its goal of doubling urban and rural incomes by 2020 and building a moderately prosperous society in all respects, its total economic output will still fall short of the U.S., leaving a significant gap unbridged.
Given these realities, why does the OECD persist in advocating such a narrative? As the adage goes, there’s no smoke without fire. Behind the OECD’s seemingly rosy portrayal of China lies not only the frustration of economic forecasters but perhaps ulterior motives as well. On November 12th, the breaking of the RMB-dollar parity below 6.30 should have been a cause for celebration for the U.S. and other Western nations. In recent years, the U.S. has pressured China to appreciate its currency, but to little avail. Should China emerge as the “global leader,†it would provide the perfect justification for continued unilateral appreciation of the Renminbi, a move that could devastate China's export-driven economy. Given China’s reliance on foreign trade at 25% or more, even a slight appreciation could severely impact exports and the broader economy.
Beyond currency appreciation, a "global first" China would also provoke increased hostility from Western politicians. In recent years, China's growing influence has sparked a constant threat narrative, amplified by political rhetoric. During this year’s U.S. presidential race, both Obama and Romney portrayed China as a strategic rival, using anti-China sentiment to garner votes. Consequently, we’ve witnessed numerous instances of discrimination against Chinese firms, such as those involving Huawei, ZTE, and Sany Heavy Industry. Even Sinopec’s acquisition of Canada’s Nexen Energy faced scrutiny. Additionally, China remains the world’s largest payer of copyright fees, providing substantial benefits to foreign companies through OEM processing. Yet, this hasn’t curbed discriminatory practices against Chinese enterprises.
Moreover, Europe, following the U.S.’s lead, is increasingly targeting China’s solar panel industry. Further sanctions are likely imminent. Meanwhile, Europe’s commitment to reducing carbon emissions will add pressure on China. On the issue of IMF capital increases, Western nations will likely continue pushing for China to shoulder greater responsibility.
While it’s important to acknowledge China’s remarkable achievements over the past 30 years of reform and opening-up, we must also confront lingering issues such as regional disparities, structural imbalances, wealth inequality, and uneven resource distribution. Only by addressing these challenges can China ensure genuine prosperity and happiness for its citizens, making any claim to global leadership truly celebratory and praiseworthy. Let’s remember that true pride comes from solving these problems and achieving sustainable development.
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