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It is reported that domestic PV manufacturers including Yingli Green Energy, Trina Solar, JA Solar, and Jingke Energy have started to expand production plans, and even Taiwan’s new daylight and green energy have been required to be put into operation before the first quarter of next year. Overseas, the expansion of SunPower in the US, Sharp and Kyocera in Japan is already underway.
The expansion of the above-mentioned enterprises in the next year will exceed 3GW, which is equivalent to 10% of the effective capacity of domestic components in China in 2012. Solarbuzz PV senior analyst Lian Rui said that the current PV market is hot. In 2013, the global installed capacity of PV was about 35GW, which was 10% higher than that of 2012. “Conservatively, the newly installed PV in 2013 can reach 42GW, and the more optimistic forecast is 45GWâ€, which has become the driving force for large enterprises to expand production. .
Qi Shengfeng, CEO of Zhongsheng Optoelectronics, is cautious about this. He believes that if the domestic market fails to achieve effective expansion next year, it may cause excess capacity of components. “And the expansion is in the component field, and the homogenization is seriousâ€.
Second expansion
The aforementioned Zhejiang PV company executives said that some of the giants that have expanded their production have completed production expansion, and some plans to complete it in the first quarter of next year. Among them, Yingli’s base in Hainan has been expanded to 1GW from the previous 300M; Trina Solar will build a 500MW component base in Yancheng; Jingao Energy will add 1GW component plant in Hefei; Jingke Energy will Based on the current 1.5GW capacity, it will expand to 1.8GW by the end of 2013 and reach 2GW in 2014.
As early as 2012, Miao Liansheng, Chairman of Yingli Group, proposed the best time for PV companies to expand production. In the view of Miao Liansheng, the wave of corporate closure caused by the photovoltaic industry crisis has left only a few large and super-large-scale enterprises in the key links in the industry chain. These enterprises have greatly reduced product costs through technological innovation and continuous expansion. , constantly moving toward cheaper Internet access. "It is foreseeable that within 2-3 years, the photovoltaic industry will be developed on a large scale in China."
Yao Feng, vice president of Jinko Energy, recalled that when Jingke Energy participated in the bidding of photovoltaic projects in 2012, there were often 20-30 participants, but now only 3-6. Yao Feng confirmed that the shipments of first-line PV module companies in the first half of the year were unexpected, and Jinke Energy's shipments in the first half of the year also set a historical level. “The commercial ecology of domestic PV installations is improving, and the price of components is also in a stable range, even slightly rising.â€
The above-mentioned Zhejiang PV company executives said that in 2014, it is envisaged to achieve 45 GW of new installations. According to the current expansion of components, supply will still be in short supply next year.
Not only component manufacturers, upstream polysilicon and downstream inverter manufacturers are also on the road to expansion. Daquan Group will invest 1 billion yuan to expand the existing 6,200 tons of polysilicon base in Xinjiang to 12,000 tons; Sunshine Power announced in November that it will invest 200 million yuan to build an inverter production base in Xining.
As one of the top 10 inverter manufacturers in China, a person in charge of Shenzhen Shenghong Electric Co., Ltd. said that Huawei and ZTE are also involved in the production of inverters. Huawei's inverter team was mainly dug from Emerson. Its team was formed in early 2012 and began to distribute goods in early 2013. It is planned to be 1 GW in 2013, and “one year can become the top five in the industryâ€.
Next year's situation may not be optimistic
This is not the first expansion of Chinese PV companies. In 2009, China's photovoltaic module production capacity was only 6GW. After two years of expansion, by the end of 2011, the number of PV companies in China will be nearly 1,000, and the capacity of PV modules will be nearly 40GW.
The above-mentioned Zhejiang PV company executives revealed that after nearly two years of industry integration, the current effective capacity of domestic PV modules is 27-28GW, which is in a relatively supply-balanced state.
In 2012, the company's financial reports showed that 8 companies including Trina Solar, Yingli, Jingao, Artes, Saiwei, Qihui Sunshine, Jinko Energy, and Hanwha New Energy had a total capacity of 14.7GW in 2012, accounting for the national total capacity. More than half of it.
Wang Haisheng, executive general manager of Ping An Securities Energy Finance Department, admitted that next year's western feed-in tariff will be reduced from 1 yuan/kWh to 0.9 yuan/kWh. In 2013, the domestic PV power plant rushed to make the PV module price rise to 4.2 yuan/watt~4.5 yuan. / watt, 10% of the gross profit margin of some project components has doubled from 5% in the first half of the year. However, after the tide of rushing, the situation next year may not be optimistic.
Several industry insiders predict that the installed capacity of domestic PV will be 8-8.5GW in 2013, and it will reach 10-11GW next year. According to the scale of the National Energy Administration, the installed capacity of China's PV in 2014 was 12 GW, and the distributed and ground power stations were 8 GW and 4 GW each.
However, the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that in the first half of this year, the total debt of China's top ten PV companies still exceeded 100 billion yuan.
“We have not expanded production, and we have achieved capacity increase through equipment automation transformation, and the original 800MW capacity has been increased to 1.2GW.†Yan Haifeng said that there are many variables in the domestic market. “If the western power station is controlled, the construction of the ground power station will be carried out. The scale is controlled at 4GW, so there will be problems with the 10GW installations next year." In the view of Yan Haifeng, domestic distributed projects are more dispersed. Although many national policies are overweight, it is more difficult to obtain financial loan support. In addition, the increase in roof rents and the Power Supply customers may change constantly, making their economy inferior to the ground. Power stations are difficult to spread as quickly as foreign countries.
Expansion of photovoltaic industry after the collapse of the tide: component capacity or surplus
Abstract If time throwback to two and a half months, LDK, will not choose to give up the transfer of Hefei base 1.6GW to Tong Wei Group? "If Hefei base running good, then maybe now you can add LDK, tight cash flow. "On November 27, a Zhejiang...
If the time goes back two and a half months, will LDK not give up the transfer of the 1.6GW Hefei base to the Tongwei Group? "If the Hefei base is working well, then it may now be able to supplement the tight cash flow of LDK." On November 27th, a photovoltaic company executive in Zhejiang admitted that in the context of the reversal of the photovoltaic industry, Tongwei Group has made a number of cost-effective transactions. "The new capacity of 1.6GW will need about 20-22 billion. In order to buy, Tongwei only spent 870 million."