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Spring market is expected to be slightly higher before the holiday
The domestic steel market is expected to see a slight increase in prices ahead of the Spring Festival, driven by a rapid rise in iron ore prices and continued price hikes from steel mills. Traders are also showing increased willingness to stock up for the spring season, contributing to a steady upward trend in the short term. According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center’s weekly price prediction model, this week (2013.1.28-2.1) will likely see a modest rise in steel prices, with long products experiencing a small pull-up and plate prices increasing steadily. The Lange Steel Composite Index is projected to fluctuate around 153 points, with an average steel price of approximately 3,980 yuan per ton, and a volatility of about 30 yuan. The long product index is expected to hover around 166.9, rising by roughly 0.5 points, while the steel sheet price index is anticipated to reach around 136.3, up by about 0.1 point.
Market research from Lange Steel indicates that the long product market will see a slight increase this week, while the plate market will experience more stable growth. Raw material prices, however, are expected to be mixed. Iron ore and coke prices are likely to remain stable, while scrap prices may drop by 50–60 yuan and billet prices could rise by 30–60 yuan.
Looking at the data from the fourth week of 2013 (2013.1.21–1.25), the Lange Steel Composite Price Index reached 152.7 points, marking a 0.12% increase from the previous week and an 8.94% decline compared to the same period last year. The long product index stood at 166.4 points, up 0.13% weekly, while the sheet index was at 136.2 points, up 0.11%. Among 44 types of steel products, 19 saw price increases, 17 remained flat, and 8 declined. In the raw materials market, iron ore prices rose by 40 yuan, coke prices increased by 20 yuan, scrap prices dropped by 30–70 yuan, and billet prices fell by 10 yuan.
Steel social inventory has slowed this week, with national stocks rebounding for five consecutive weeks. As of January 25, the total steel inventory in 29 key cities reached 13.3 million tons, up 2.17% from the previous week, but with a slower growth rate of 1.33 percentage points. Subcategories show varied trends, with wire rod, rebar, and hot rolled coil inventories rising, while cold rolled coil and plate inventories slightly decreased.
In the futures market, the main rebar contract closed up 0.99% on the 25th, reaching 4,076, with a significant increase in trading volume and open interest. This suggests a positive sentiment in the steel market, supported by strong demand and rising prices.
Macroeconomic factors also play a role. The State Council released the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Marine Economic Development,†aiming to enhance marine science and technology innovation and promote sustainable development. Additionally, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Energy Development†outlines targets for energy efficiency and consumption control. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also issued guidance on enterprise mergers and acquisitions to improve industry concentration and competitiveness.
On the global front, HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI hit a 24-month high of 51.9 in January 2013, indicating strong manufacturing activity. Meanwhile, BHP Billiton reported a 7.6% increase in annual iron ore production, reflecting growing supply. However, trade tensions persist, as the U.S. imposed double anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese wind towers.
China Steel Association predicts a 3.2% global steel demand growth in 2013, with China's demand expected to rise by 3.1%. Despite some challenges, such as declining shipbuilding orders and weak downstream demand, the steel market remains cautiously optimistic, with price recovery expected due to lower inventories and rising raw material costs.